Climate change likely major factor in Iron Ore Line derailments

Two derailments in short succession on the Swedish Malmbanan, or Iron Ore Line in English, sparked suspicions of sabotage. Now that the investigations for the incidents in December 2023 and February 2024 are nearing completion, investigators are saying that it is not adversary actors, but rather climate change that may be to blame for the incidents.

In winter, temperatures in the north of Sweden usually remain below zero. However, as climate change effects start to take hold, temperatures change. Last winter, they fluctuated around zero, leading to continuous freezing and melting of snow and ice. Swedish investigators say that the abnormal temperatures may be to blame for the derailments.

“We see that it may have been important, for example, how often the temperature changes between minus and plus degrees”, an investigator into February’s derailment tells Svenska Dagbladet. “”The weather was windy and the temperature around zero degrees. During the slow movement that took place through a left curve, some wheels seem to have derailed to the left”, an investigation commission writes.

For the December derailment, it is also a likely factor, but the investigation is more complex. “We think it’s a technical railway story, which we don’t really know everything about yet”, an investigator tells Swedish media. Both investigations are supposed to present their findings before the end of the year.

Sabotage warning

The two derailments in quick succession left the Malmbanan unusable for a lengthy period. Since it functions as a vital rail artery in the north of Sweden, the large mines in the region suffered financially from the unforeseen downtime.

Two incidents in a relatively short amount of time also led to suspicions about sabotage by foreign actors. Not only is the Malmbanan a vital artery for the mines, but since Sweden’s accession to NATO it is also growing in importance as military infrastructure.

Sabotage seems to be ruled out as the reason behind the Iron Ore Line derailments. Nevertheless, European agencies have warned of possible Russian sabotage operations against rail infrastructure on the continent with Putin reportedly feeling “emboldened”.